An unexpected conjunction of important and unplanned events produced
an emotional week in early June. Western leaders gathered on the Normandy
beaches to celebrate the 60th anniversary of D-Day, a new government was
formed in Baghdad and the UN Security Council adopted a unanimous resolution
on
Iraq. In the course of the same few days, the G8 met on Sea Island, Georgia,
and Washington
National Cathedral opened its doors for Ronald Reagan's spectacular funeral
with Mikhail Gorbachev in attendance. A strong feeling emerged from this special
week: a page in history, and in our life, had been turned. What is going to
come next?
Whether we like it or not, a new international configuration is emerging.
A "multipolar
world" is already in front of us, as the United States recognizes that it needs
allies and international legitimacy to fulfill the missions that it deems necessary.
China
is becoming the indispensable interlocutor in Asia. Countries such as India,
Brazil, and South Africa have already demonstrated the roles they play in the
international
trading system by blocking the negotiation of the Doha Development Round in
Cancun. While Europe will need time to perfect its integration, its weight cannot
be disregarded
for long. In recent months, German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has spent
more time with Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Chinese leaders than
with
President George W. Bush.
The European Union now has 25 members. The European Constitution is adopted.
As confusing as the ratification process may be, it cannot hide the fact that Europe is
coming together, and changing. The U.S. elections in November, a new European Commission,
several national elections, and the establishment of new European institutions
including an EU Foreign Minister and the recently appointed Anti-terrorism Coordinator
for Homeland Security, will soon transform the composition of our leadership.
Meanwhile, the Muslim world is also coming together, although not in the best
conditions; and a "Fourth World" of the poor and excluded is emerging in its shadow.
The deprived segment of the international community constitutes a demographic time
bomb that threatens to explode unless a global development race against the clock is
undertaken by the rich and powerful to help fill the gap. The limits of hard power have
been clearly established in Iraq, as in Vietnam. In the face of terrorist threats, it remains
to be seen how much soft power can be mobilized, and what it can achieve.
Against this background, will the United States, wounded by the unintended consequences
of the Iraq war, remain engaged internationally, or will the richest country
on earth retreat behind the curtain of a modernized navy, and under the umbrella of
its new upcoming air and space powers?
The German government already knows that a large number of American forces
will leave its territory. The United States is also to withdraw a third of the
37,000 American troops now stationed in South Korea by the end of 2005. A debate
has
started on how to provide the thousands of U.S. military personnel needed to
rotate
and supplement the troops who are serving in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Meanwhile, 77 percent of Americans know "little or nothing" about the European
Union, according to a recent survey,
AP Reports to Brussels, published
June 7, 2004. And 80 percent of Americans do not know that the newly enlarged
European Union
has 450 million inhabitants, compared to the U.S. population of 290 million.
The least that can be said is that much work remains to be done to maintain
and, in some cases,
to restore the ties between the United States and Europe.We should also establish
a single real link between the U.S. government and the American people, on the
one
hand, and the European Union and its citizens, on the other. While such a new
relationship may not be a sufficient condition for our future security, it certainly
is a necessary
one. Our new leaders should approach it seriously.
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