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The European Commission's declaration in early October
that Turkey has made sufficient progress in democratic and human
rights reform to start negotiations for EU membership is a landmark
moment in the history of both Turkey and the European Union.
Turkey is the biggest and the poorest country ever to seek to
join the European Union and its entry will influence the future
course of European integration. If Turkey were to become a member,
for instance, the borders of the European Union would stretch
to Syria, Iraq and Iran. Turkey's membership bid is also controversial
because only a tiny fraction of the country is geographically
within Europe and, while officially secular, it would be the
first Muslim nation to begin entry negotiations with the European
Union. Nevertheless, short of a political earthquake, such negotiations
will now probably get under way some time in 2005.
It is worth underlining, however, that the Commission is proposing
to open negotiations on Turkish membership, not necessarily to conclude
them, and that the talks could last many years. Massive problems
of economic, legal, social, environmental and political integration
remain to be solved before either the government in Ankara or the
governments of the European Union will be ready to sign a deal.
Even if they do, the process will not be complete. The treaty of
accession between the European Union and Turkey will have to be
ratified by either a parliamentary vote or a referendum in all the
EU member states, as well as in Turkey itself. President Jacques
Chirac of France, for example, has already served notice that he
will propose an amendment to the French Constitution requiring a
referendum to approve Turkey's ventual accession. It is a pretty
safe bet that by the time the final, crucial stages of the accession
negotiations are reached the European Union will have more than
30 members, compared to only 15 until very recently. Ten new members,
mainly from Central and Eastern Europe, joined in May 2004, bringing
the total to 25. Bulgaria and Romania hope to enter in 2007. Croatia
is due to begin negotiations in 2005 and aims to become a member
by 2009. Albania, Bosnia, Macedonia and Serbia want to be admitted
some time in the coming ten years, and it is quite possible that
Kosovo and Montenegro could follow suit if, as seems likely, they
emerge as independent states in the future.
"The recommendation is to open negotiations on Turkish
membership, not necessarily to conclude them
It is common ground between Brussels and Ankara that the negotiation
of Turkish membership will take a long time. Diplomats and politicians
are openly speculating that the process might take ten to 15
years - meaning that if negotiations begin in 2005 or 2006 Turkey
might not be admitted into the European Union until around 2020.
Contrary to the views of some U.S. analysts, Brussels officials
believe that this extended timetable is very much in the interests
of both Turkey and the European Union. It will take years of
hard work to implement the economic and political reforms in
Turkey that are essential if EU membership is to strengthen
the country rather than weaken it. Some of the most far-sighted
Turkish reformers actually believe that the "European process
is more important in itself than the final outcome of the negotiations.
In this view, the opening of the negotiations should provide
an overarching European political and legal framework within
which the reformers would have the best chance of achieving
the country's economic, political and social modernization.
The entire, immensely challenging process will demand a radical
change in orthodox political mindsets in both Turkey and the
European Union. There are grounds for measured optimism. European
political leaders have been greatly encouraged by the success
of the moderate Islamic government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan in
carrying through basic democratic, legal and human rights reforms
in order to meet the criteria for EU membership. Mr. Erdogan's
AKP party has done more than decades of pro-Western secular
governments to transform Turkey's legal system, strengthen the
democratic rule of law, tackle the long abused rights of the
Kurds and other minorities and crack down on torture. In the
past, Turkey's episodic experi-ments with military regimes took
its human rights record backward. The European Commission has
given a clear warning that any relapse by Turkey in implementing
the latest reforms would put the entire accession process at
risk. The hope in Brussels is that, despite Turkey's unique
cultural and political characteristics, its accelerating progress
toward a "European model of society will strengthen the hand
of reformers in other Islamic states in the region and far beyond.
The mere prospect of Turkey joining the European Union has come
as a considerable culture shock to important sections of the
European political classes and public opinion. It has led to
declarations by some conservative politicians that Turkey can
never really be part of Europe because it is overwhelmingly
a Muslim, not a Christian, country. Advo- cates of Turkish membership
retort that such claims ignore both Europe's history and the
reality of the multicultural societies that are emerging in
Europe today. Some argue that the Muslim world, particularly
in Spain, played a vital role in inspiring Europe's Renaissance.
Today, more people go to the mosque each week in Britain than
attend the services of any single Christian denomination, and
there are important Muslim communities in many West European
EU states, most notably France. Three of the countries likely
to join the European Union in the next decade or so, Bosnia,
Kosovo and Albania, are mainly Muslim.
Nevertheless, there is no shortage of legitimate worries about
Turkey's eventual accession. Turkey is so poor and underdeveloped
that there are serious questions as to how the country can be
successfully integrated into the European Union. Under present
policies, Turkey alone would swallow virtually all of the limited
EU funds intended to help close the development gap between
the Union's richer and poorer countries and regions. The consequences
might be compared to those of trying to incorporate Mexico and
the rest of Central America into the United States.
Moreover, the continuing enlargement of the European Union poses
truly horrendous challenges to the future efficient functioning
of the Union. Of course some EU countries, and especially Britain,
have encouraged the idea of continuous enlargement precisely
so as to block further European integration: they would like
nothing better than to see the Union end up as little more than
a free trade zone. The recent enlargement already poses challenges
to the effective and democratic functioning of the Union that
will be impossible to overcome if the proposed constitutional
treaty is not ratified in all 25 current member countries. Nevertheless,
there are powerful tectonic forces pressing the European Union
to strengthen, not weaken its integration. The constitutional
treaty marks a decisive stage in the creation of common foreign,
security and defense policies. The crisis in relations with
the Bush Administration and the deep divide across the Atlantic
on so many critical issues of global concern have obliged the
Union to go to unprecedented lengths to define its international
role and its security and defense policies.
"Today, more people go to the mosque each week in Britain than
attend the services of any single Christian denomination
The Union is also now responsible for important areas of internal
security and justice a development that would have been unthinkable
for many member states just a few years ago. The single European
market and the euro will require a further deepening of cross
border integration if they are to succeed. The question is how
continuing enlargement and further integration can be pursued
at the same time. If enlargement continues in the next decade
or so, and particularly if it is to include Turkey, it is hard
to see how a vast array of 30 or more diverse states could unanimously
agree on important steps to closer integration. The constitutional
treaty, however, suggests the most likely way ahead by providing
for groups of member states to integrate further and more quickly
than the Union as a whole. In the next few years, for example,
the countries of the euro area will probably strengthen their
economic ties and even introduce some elements of common tax
policies. Participants in the Schengen agreement which abolishes
controls on the movement of people across EU internal borders
may tighten police and judicial coordination. Even Britain
(which remains outside both Schengen and the euro) supports
closer EU defense cooperation. If the will is there, the means
can be found to organize even a 35-member Union that could include
Turkey. A multi-speed, differentially integrated European Union
seems inevitable, and the prospect of Turkish membership is
likely to hasten its arrival.
"Some groups of member states are likely to integrate
further and more quickly than the Union as a whole
One other important factor may help decide the final shape of
Turkey's integration in Europe the development of a European
Neighborhood Policy (ENP). This envisages the eventual creation
of a common market, common internal security arrangements and
possibly even a common foreign policy linking the enlarged European
Union to its new neighbors. These are, to the East, Ukraine,
Belarus, Moldova and maybe Russia if it does not move away from
the path to democracy, and, to the South, the North African
and Middle Eastern countries bordering the Mediterranean. Some
believe that this "Big European House (in the words of the
late French President Franois Mitterrand) may eventually require
a sharing of sovereignty in common institutions. The project
is clearly also designed to provide an alternative to continual
enlargement of the Union to the point where it could no longer
function. In 15 years, Turkey and the European Union will certainly
have evolved much farther. It is neither necessary nor helpful
now for either side to prejudge the outcome of the accession
negotiations. If toward the end of the next decade Turkey's
transformation has been achieved, and if the European Union
finds a way to reconcile enlargement and integration, Turkish
entry must surely follow. It is possible, however, that by then
Turkey's leaders might prefer to be a leading partner in the
new, wider "European House rather than accept the vast nexus
of legal obligations required for full membership. For now,
the priority in Brussels is to use the goal of EU membership
to help Turkey establish itself in its region, and throughout
the Muslim world, as a beacon for those aspiring to democracy
and reform.
John Palmer is the Political Director of
the European Policy Centre in Brussels (www.theepc.be). He was the
European Editor of the British newspaper The Guardian between 1975
and 1997. (palmerjohn@arcadis.be)
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