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The European Commission's finding
that Turkey is ready to begin negotiations for EU entry does not
mean that Turkish membership is now assured - the Commission has
rather given Turkey a flashing yellow light that could turn green
if Ankara continues with economic and political reforms. It could
also turn red. In the words of former Commission President Romano
Prodi, "It is a qualified Yes that is accompanied by a large number
of recommendations on following up and monitoring the situation
in Turkey.
The Commission report said that, "Turkey has achieved
significant legislative progress in many areas, such as for instance
implementation of political and economic reforms, but these need
to be further consolidated and broadened. High inflation in Turkey
has come down to historic lows, political interference by the government
in the economy has been reduced and the institutional and regulatory
framework has been brought closer to international standards. Government
control over the military had increased significantly, it added.
While the Commission praised Turkey's progress in many areas, it
also added reservations. Among its main points were:
- Human rights are generally protected and abusive behavior
toward prisoners, for example, is not customary any more.
Nevertheless, cases of torture still occur.
- The victims of violence committed by the security forces
or extremist political groups are often women.
- Progress has been achieved in the protection of the rights
of Turkish children, but illegal child labor is still common.
- Freedom of expression and a free press are ideals for
which many Turks strive, but which do not exist in practice.
More generally, Turkey has to prove in the years to come that
it is oriented toward EU accession. The Commission will strictly
monitor further reforms, and the entry negotiations may be
broken off any time. Even the more optimistic supporters of
Turkish membership believe that the country is unlikely to
join the European Union until 2015, or perhaps 2020, at the
earliest. According to French President Jacques Chirac, concerns
over Turkey's eventual membership are premature, because no
one knows whether Turkey will have met the requirements some
15 years from now. While many EU governments support Turkish
membership, they are treading carefully because opinion polls
indicate that many of their citizens are against it.
Mr. Chirac's
comment reflects opinion polls suggesting that at least 50
percent, and perhaps as many as 75 percent, of French people
oppose Turkish entry. In Germany, polls suggest that public
opinion is becoming more supportive of Turkish membership,
but while the Government is in favor, the opposition Christian
Democrats want Turkey to be given a "privileged partnership
with the European Union instead. The British and Italian governments
have strongly supported Turkish entry (although the Vatican
is opposed on religious grounds), while the Netherlands is
broadly in favor. Greece strongly supports Turkey's bid as
part of a policy of rapprochement with its old antagonist
to promote stability in the Eastern Mediterranean. Austria
has been a consistent opponent of Turkish entry, while Denmark
has urged caution. Spain, Sweden and Poland have indicated
their support. But large swathes of public opinion remained
unconvinced. Surveys suggest many Europeans fear that the
huge size and relative poverty of Turkey would lead to a flood
of migrants westward, and that their jobs could be threatened
by cheap Turkish labor.
Turkish GDP per head is only 26 percent
of the EU average - making it the poorest country ever to
seek to join the Union - and one third of its population is
engaged in agriculture. Franz Fischler, the former Commissioner
for Agriculture, has warned that the European Union's current
regional aid and agricultural policies could simply not accommodate
the demands of Turkey. EU taxpayers have certainly not yet
shown much enthusiasm for supporting what would undoubtedly
be huge Turkish demands on EU finances. The Commission estimates
that almost Þ28 billion a year, including Þ11 billion for
agriculture, would be spent on Turkey if it were a member,
or more than a quarter of the current annual EU budget.
Turkey's
need for EU structural cohesion funds would greatly reduce
the benefits available for the eight new EU members in Central
and Eastern Europe, not to mention older members such as Spain,
Greece and Portugal. Some Europeans also fear that the admission
of Turkey, a Muslim though officially secular country, would
help to spread Islam more widely throughout the continent,
and many do not consider Turkey to be a European country.
According to some forecasts, the admission of Turkey would
mean that there would be more mosque-going Muslims in the
European Union than church-attending Christians. In order
to calm such fears, Olli Rehn, the new European Commissioner
for Enlargement, has spoken of possibly permanent limits on
the freedom of movement of Turkish workers. In the opinion
of some experts, however, such a derogation of one of the
fundamental freedoms of the European Union would mean the
beginning of the end of the Union. The most likely outcome
is a very long transition period before Turkish workers could
move freely throughout the Union. Mr. Prodi argues that fears
about Turkey are not justified. "A Europe that is sure of
itself, has a constitution and strong institutions and policies,
is returning to economic growth and is based on a strong model
of peace, prosperity and solidarity has nothing to fear from
the integration of Turkey, he stated. He warned, however,
that Turkish membership was not a foregone conclusion. Jack
Straw, the British Foreign Secretary, said that Turkey had
undergone remarkable changes over the last few years, putting
in place the extensive reforms the European Union had demanded.
Joschka Fischer, the German Foreign Minister, also welcomed
the Commission's report. Nevertheless, Edmund Stoiber, Prime
Minister of Bavaria and Christian Democratic candidate for
Chancellor in 2002, warned that Europe's borders should not
reach as far as Iraq, Iran and Syria. "Anyone who doesn't
know his limits is in danger of over-stretching himself, and
Europe is in acute danger of this, he said. Mr. Chirac has
also warned that France could use its right of veto to prevent
Turkish entry, if necessary, and Cyprus, which only joined
the Union in May 2004, has dropped similar hints. Greek Cypriots
are disturbed that Turkey recognizes only the Turkish community
of Cyprus, and not the Greek-Cypriot government. Cypriot diplomats
have been reported as saying that it would be impossible for
Nicosia to accept the opening of EU talks with Ankara so long
as Turkey does not recognize one of the 25 member states.
Most of the ten new member states, however, supported the
Commission's conclusions.
"Turkey is the best example of a
democratic state in the Islamic world. It is proof that the
fundamental values of Western democracy can also be applied
in Islamic countries, said Wlodzimierz Cimoszewicz, the Polish
Foreign Minister. Toomas Hendrik Ilves, Vice-Chairman of the
European Parliament's Committee on Foreign Affairs, said he
doubted Turkey would join by 2015, but supported the country's
aspirations. "The European Union needs energy sources independent
from Russia and also more people. Thirty years from now there
won't be enough people in the European Union to pay enough
tax to ensure our pensions ø we have to find them, he said.
Toivo Tþnavsuu is Correspondent for EU issues
for the Estonian daily newspaper Eesti Pþevaleht.
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